Would you tell me if there is any difference in meaning between I bet and I'm betting in the sense of believing something will happen? For example:
I bet you will pass the test this time.
I'm betting you will pass the test this time.
Does I'm betting feel less certain?
Best Answer
They're very close, perhaps indistinguishable in the sense that you're asking about. (Obviously in other contexts, like actual wagering, the two are used differently, as others have pointed out.)
For me, "I'm betting" contains a slightly stronger suggestion that you've thought the thing out that you're betting will happen - i.e., it gives off the impression that you've spent a little time coming to the opinion. It can therefore come off as, I don't know, a bit more serious? This is just my impression - others can feel free to disagree.