The choice of tense here is somewhat restricted by the meaning of expect, which means to anticipate that something will happen. When we expect something, we believe it will happen; we await it.
When that which we expect to happen turns out to happen or to not happen, we no longer have the expectation. The expectation is abandoned either because now we know otherwise, or because what we expected to happen has indeed happened. When it has rained cats and dogs and our shoes are already ruined, we cannot expect them to get ruined. We cannot expect the 4PM train to be late if it is 4PM and the train has already arrived on time.
If we are speaking of an expectation as either an ongoing state of mind or as an abandoned state of mind, we do not use the present perfect with expect . If the expectation is abandoned, it is a thing of the past.
What did you expect?
What were you expecting?
If the expectation is ongoing, it is a thing of the present.
What do you expect?
What are you expecting?
Only when we wish to speak of the expectation as one that may be in transition from held belief to abandoned belief does expect hook up with the present perfect, though even then the two are awkward dancing partners.
What have you been expecting?
What have you expected?
What have you been believing?
What have you believed?
The present perfect could also be used to mean "things that I have believed over the course of my lifetime which I no longer believe, but I own to having believed them".
Have you expected Santa Claus to come down the chimney?
Have you expected the Tooth Fairy to leave money under your pillow?
Have you expected business partners to be honest and above-board?
In a stack exchange query nearly four years ago, this sort of problem occurred: Tense when saying "This is the first time" you've been somewhere
This is the first time I tried to raft....
That was the second time I had tried to raft.... The "was" puts the time in the past, completed, which is where the past perfect is used. This can be difficult, because "tried rafting" sounds perfectly fine in speech. The "was" matters.
Best Answer
I prefer the past perfect (had not expected) for exactly the reason you gave. There is already a time in the past being referenced (the time at which he won), and in order for the situation to make sense it is necessary that his expectations preceded that win.
If the win was in the present, then I would definitely choose the simple past.
So then, the question becomes why doesn't your textbook also prefer the past perfect?
Well, the past tense isn't at all wrong. There isn't a timeline explicitly stated, and without the implied information we added the sentence is simply telling us about his mental state at a single point in time.
It's not optimal, but it's still completely correct. The fact that it gave you the simple past can be chalked up to preferences.