I think both of your suggestions sound a little off. I'd suggest
Not likely=
(1) I probably haven't finished my homework.
(2) I don't think so. (with a heavy emphasis on think – to indicate sarcasm, as mentioned in The Photon's answer)
However, I must ask: Did this question come straight from a test? Or did you make it up, or alter it somehow?
It seems unlikely that the phrase "not likely" would be used in the first person, not if we are talking about something that isn't in the future. The word "likely" is used to express a high probability. Therefore, if you ask me whether or not I've finished my homework, either I have finished it, or I haven't – there's no "likely" involved, because there's no uncertainty involved.
I could see the phrase not likely being used in this context (future tense):
Do you think you'll have your homework finished by 10 o'clock?
Not likely. (Meaning: "I probably won't.")
or this context (third person):
Do you think Ariana has finished her homework?
Not likely. (Meaning: "I doubt that she has.")
However, it's very hard to imagine me using "Not likely" as an answer to the question, "Have you finished your homework?" Then again, perhaps that's the point of the question; if it's meant to be an incorrect answer, maybe it's not supposed to sound interpretable.
Let's first talk about the following two sentences:
1- Sara went to bed as soon as she had finished homework.
2- Sara went to bed as soon as she finished homework.
I think your confusion is valid because we use the past perfect when we talk about something that took place before another thing in the past. So the use of the past perfect comes across in the first sentence but the use of the past simple in the second sentence doesn't. Am I right? In fact, we don't need to use the past perfect unless it is necessary or unavoidable to do so. Even if we talk about one action happening before the other one, it is possible to use the simple past for both actions if we think it is not necessary to highlight or emphasize the happening of the earlier action. It sounds natural to avoid using the past perfect where the simple past works, which is used to refer to something or several things happening in sequence (one after another) in the past.
So both of the sentences are grammatically correct. However, I'll prefer the second phrase to the first one.
As for the last two sentences, it is correct to say that "everyone had gone home when Sara got to the party", but it's not grammatically correct to say that "everyone had gone home when Sara had got to the party". It doesn't make sense. In the past perfect when we talk about two events, we use the simple past in one clause and the past perfect in the second clause.
Let's now talk about the following sentence you are confused about:
"Everyone went home when Sara had got to the party".
There is nothing wrong with this sentence, but the meaning is other way round. It means that first Sara got to the party and then every one went home. Look at the
first sentence again. When Sara got to the party, everyone had gone home. Here it means that first everyone went home and then Sara got to the party. Sometimes, one action happens soon after the other action, here we should use the past simple in both clauses such as when Sara got to the party, everyone left, when they saw the police, they ran away, etc.
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Best Answer
The word newly sounds strange here and recently fits the context better:
The difference between the two words is explained here:
Then, whether you consider yesterday or five minutes ago to be recently depends on the context and both would be correct.