"The high oil prices are surely not wholesome for the economy."
—Axel Weber.
Does Axel Weber correctly use surely in his statement?
How does the meaning of that quote change replacing surely with certainly?
I'm asking because, as far as I understand, surely does not imply that something is true, instead certainly does. So I would conclude that Axel Weber is unsure of what he stated, which is at least strange if not absurd.
Can anybody shed a bit of light on this matter?
Best Answer
There's nothing wrong with the cited usage. In this precise context, surely and certainly mean exactly the same thing (definitely, unquestionably).
In some other contexts, there's often a tendency to use surely where the speaker is "reasonably" sure of something, but recognises the possibility he might be mistaken. Or even that he already recognises that some unlikely scenario may indeed be the case...
...strongly implies that although the speaker thinks refusing to pay is unreasonable, they do in fact think this is what's likely to happen. Using certainly there implies payment will definitely be made - and if necessary the speaker will take steps to impose this outcome.
Note that my example sentence could reasonably be spoken with "question" intonation, and could thus be terminated by a question mark in the written form. This would be far less likely using certainly. It's not that sure is less "definite" than certain - but note what thefreedictionary says...
...which in the context of my example means surely can be seen as focusing on the speaker's subjective opinion (he thinks the bill should be paid), where certainly focuses on the speaker's knowledge (that the bill will be paid, regardless of any arguments involving the unwanted fly).