Both are acceptable, but the usage is slightly different. The following extensions to the sentence illustrate the most common usage:
I doubt they will exchange the 20 inch monitor when I take it back.
I doubt they will exchange the 20 inch monitor if I take it back (but I may try to).
I doubt they would exchange the 20 inch monitor if I took it back (but I'm not going to).
In general, would is used in situations hypothetical, or contingent on some unfulfilled condition; will is used in situations that are more certain. The first sentence takes will because the speaker definitely intends to take the monitor back. The second uses will because, although there is a condition, there is a definite possibility of it being fulfilled. The third sentence takes would because the speaker has no intention of taking it backāand therefore the condition is entirely hypothetical.
I think there's an implied meaning in using "will" vs. "would" in hypotheticals. In your first example, would and will are both correct. Will, I believe implies a higher level of expected certainty.
By that I mean, if you ask "what will happen" you're expecting the reader to infer that the answerer knows what will happen. If you ask, "what would happen" then the reader will likely infer that the answerer is making an educated guess as to what the result will be.
The following 3 sentences don't appear to be asking what you intend to ask.
The second example means, "what will happen if I am the kind of person who would actually say to my boss that I'm not coming into work tomorrow?"
The third means, "what will happen if I will say to my boss . . .?" This is a great example of how will and would have different probability assertions. The answer to this question is "you will say to your boss that you will not come tomorrow."
The fourth is just like the second except that there's an implied speculation.
Revision: After working through some of your questions in the comments, I believe I realize the problem you're having.
It appears you're looking at the future condition and expecting to put the verb in the future tense. Id est, "I will say." I believe these are called conditional sentences, specifically future conditional sentences.
There are two general forms in English:
If/When - Future Condition - Simple Present Result
If/When - Simple Present Condition - Future Result
So, your question is technically, "If I say to my boss today that I'm not coming in tomorrow, what will happen?" In English, we can arrange this question to be, "What will happen tomorrow if I say to my boss today that I'm not coming in?"
If you were to ask, "what will happen if I will say to my boss that I'm not coming to work," you could rearrange that to be "If I will say to my boss that I'm not coming to work, what will happen." I think that's how other posters have read it (and that's how I read it) and that's why it sounds confusing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_sentence
http://www.englishpage.com/conditional/futureconditional.html
Or, Google "Future Real Conditionals."
Best Answer
Will.
The subjunctive mood (would) is probably not appropriate in this sentence, since you reasonably expect the second part to come in handy.