Can local nations leave the council due to panic

xcom-enemy-unknown

I'm playing Classic Ironman difficulty on my iPhone. My XCOM base is in Germany. Russia's panic reached 5 and I was unable to deploy a satellite before the Council Report came in. I was then shocked to see that Russia did not leave the XCOM program. This has left me with two possible theories:

  1. Local nations are "in it to win it" and will not secede despite maximum panic levels.
  2. There is some (small) chance that nations with maximum panic will not secede when the council gives their report.

I am forced to assume that local nations will still immediately secede if a terror mission is ignored (not too keen on testing that out). And perhaps neither of the above theories are correct.

Has anyone else witnessed a nation with 5 panic staying with the program? If local nations will not secede, it would seem it is safe to ignore them until all other satellites are placed… but that seems too easy. But that's my question: Is it possible for local nations to secede from the XCOM project during council reports?

Best Answer

Nations leaving is a percentage chance. There is a maximum number of countries that can leave each month (based on difficulty) as well as a percentage chance to leave at 5 panic. Having satellites in the country (and neighboring countries) reduces the chance of the country leaving the XCOM project.

To answer the title question: Yes, it is possible for local nations to leave due to panic. However you have inherent bonuses from nearby satellites that reduce the chances of this happening.

Source: INI file and analysis mentioned here: http://www.reddit.com/r/Xcom/comments/1aadl8/probabilities_of_nation_leaving_the_council_at_5/