When an army stack loses a battle, it is returned to one of the army's provinces to regain strength. During this time, the destination cannot be changed.
How does a losing battalion choose what province to return to?
In my case, I would like to know to predict where my enemy's army stack will go and bring mine there.
Best Answer
It is mostly random. The army usually chooses the closest high development province, but can also move very far away. If a nation is rather small, the capital province is very likely to be chosen.
From the wiki
Offensively you pretty much have no choice but to follow the defeated army to find out where it goes. Defensively it is often a good idea to manually retreat (move your army away from the battle, retreat is only possible after 12 days). If you do this while your armies morale is still above 0.5 you can choose which province it retreats to.