Ny way to tell if an enethe is on overwatch

According to readings around the internet - no official sources - it's random. In my experience it has been random. I think I've gotten 2 heavies, 3 snipers, 3 support, and 2 assaults (still have a few rookies yet to get tested out). How many guys have you seen promoted?

Note that I play rookies exactly one way: move closer to enemies. Draw fire. Go through doors first. Shoot or capture if possible. Pat on back if they survive the mission. ;)

Actually those are the only two penalties to reaction shots I have encountered. At the exact second your character starts to fire, it is as if the enemy was standing there at that moment and told them to shoot and then subtract the aim penalty (-20 I think). In addition you can use this to your advantage and place a smoke where your character is dashing through. You will gain the defense boost if you are shot at while in the smoke.

Finally, I do know that there are bonuses you and enemies gain when moving or more specifically when dashing. When an enemy is dashing they are a moving target and have a higher defense and thus harder to hit. The combined reduction of accuracy from overwatch and dashing bonus from the enemy makes it very hard to hit reaction shots.

That specific perk basically removes all penalties to using overwatch on a sniper. It's pretty good when combined with squad sight.

This is all only in my experience however and I can't check what the enemy chances to hit are. I'd like to do some testing in multiplayer if possible.