Thanks to another question on this site, I know that I can obtain the new items required for the new evolutions from PokéStops. My question is, how common are these items? I've spun about a dozen stops and not seen a single one yet. Most PokéStop items are more common than that, so I'm wondering if they are pretty rare, or if I've just been unlucky.
Pokemon-go – What are the odds of getting an evolution item from a PokéStop
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Best Answer
tl;dr: While no concrete numbers have been confirmed yet, the odds of finding one from a PokéStop are very slim. Based on the reports I've been reading, it looks like the odds to receive one are at or around 1%, possibly lower. In fact, from this report, the calculated probability of receiving an evolutionary item seems to be roughly 0.14%, as a grand total of 33 evolutionary items were received among over 24,000 drops.
However, it's worth noting that it seems like you are now guaranteed to get an evolutionary item when spinning your 7th day streak PokéStop, according to this in-game notification:
Until this update has been around for longer, it's not possible to have the most accurate numbers in terms of the probability of these items appearing from PokéStops, but numerous users have been reporting that they received an evolutionary item as a daily streak bonus reward (especially so for 7th day Streak bonuses).
For instance, this thread:
One comment linked to this thread which originally speculated that these items only came from 7th day streak spins (this has since been disproven numerous times, though it has now been confirmed that you are guaranteed an evolutionary item for this):
As many have noted, however, you are able to get these items randomly from PokéStops. Some users in that thread also estimated how many spins it took them to find their first evolutionary item. From that thread:
Users in this thread have also been reporting how many spins it took them to find their first evolutionary item (or not):
A fourth thread has been aggregating data to try to figure out the drop rates for the new items as well.
There are other threads like these, like this one or this one.
In addition to all of these reports, from the comments above:
Additionally, I have received 0 evolutionary items from about 10 spins since they became available.