The chance to inflict certain amount of damage with varying weapon or grenade damage

xcom-2

Apart from pistols, weapons in XCOM 2 deal X+-1 damage. For example conventional assault rifle deals 3, 4, or 5 non-crit damage. Is the middle value more likely to get rolled, or is it a 1/3 chance for any of those numbers? For the first two pistols, is it a 50% chance to deal either lower or higher damage, and for the third tier pistol will it be 25% for each damage value of 3, 4, 5, and 6?

Does critical damage distribution function in the same way (even or uneven distribution for example for assault rifle's critical damage range of 5-7)?

For regular grenades it seems that they deal 3 damage much more often than 4. What is the chance to inflict four damage? It seems this is rolled for each enemy in the blast radius, because I have seen grenades to deal 3 to some and 4 to some other enemy.

Slightly related bonus question: Does crit chance mean a chance to hit as well, or just a chance to crit IF the normal hit rolls favorably? If my Ranger can hit a far-away target with 75% chance but has a critical chance of 85% due to modifiers, will it be 85% chance to hit and always crit when it does, or 75% chance to hit with 0.75*0.85=0.6375 chance to crit and 0.1125 chance to inflict normal damage?

Best Answer

This Reddit post answers some of your questions. Here's my understanding:

  • Grenades have an 80% chance of dealing the lower of the two amounts of damage in the damage range given by the game.
  • Most weapons have an equal chance at any of the damage values in the range given by the game.
  • Some weapons, such as pistols, have a bias towards the higher damage values in the range. This bias is not the same for each weapon in this category, however.