I have just been playing TF2 for a while now and I am still wondering what the unusual drop chance is. I understand that unusuals in TF2 can only be found through uncrating.
However, when I tried to search up on the unusual drop chance I came up with several different speculations. For example:
According to www.tf2finance.com/rate/ this is how the drop chance for unusuals are calculated
However, according to Steam forum posts, people claim that the drop rate is a fixed 1% or 0.6%.
As far as i'm aware the Percentage is of 1% So, 1 in 100? But then
again, seeing as this is a binomial experiment. The results being YES
or NO and the result we pay attention being YES UNUSUAL, you are most
likely to find it on your 50th try.
In other words, I am at a lost here. Since all these data is based on other peoples backpacks and the crates other's have uncrated.
My question is, has Valve ever released any info on what the official TF2 unusual uncrating chance is? If so, what is the official unusual drop rate?
Best Answer
According to the TF2 wiki, which uses that tf2finance.com page as a source, the uncrate rate for unusuals is approximately 1/150, or 0.66%. I don't think you should concern yourself too much with the math they use to prove it, since the page was created mainly to disprove that the rate was exactly 1%, and so is kind of tailored to prove that the rate's upper bound is lower than 1% more than to prove what the exact rate is.
Valve has not released any such official info.