There is a degree of trial and error I've found.
Most of the lures will tell you what type of fish they work best with. So you can couple this with the map to get an idea of what you should be using.
So if you're in Cleign and you have a lure for Cleign Bass for example, safe bet that's a good place to start. Plus if you're fishing in the ocean, try lures which attract 'Sea Bass' and similar.
Also, it's worth scouting the local area, quite often there is fishing tackle laying around, you can pick up, which also helps give you a clue as to which lure to try first.
However it's worth noting that you can catch fish with the 'incorrect' lure, it's just harder to get a bite.
"Perhaps you should respool your line Noct?"
Or check this guide for some extra information. I've quoted the relevant section below.
Lures : There’s lots of lures in the game. You’ll need to swap out which lure you use based on what fish you’re hoping to hook and where. Popper lures let you seek fish near the surface, pencil lures let you fish more effectively at dawn or dusk, swisher lures make boring fishing spots more lively, crankbait lures help you in rocky or littered waters, minnow lures work in clear waters, and vibration lures are best for wide areas.
Lure Weight : The heavier the lure, the deeper underwater it goes, and the bigger the fish it catches.
Lure Color : Fish like colors close to their own. Get a red lure for a red fish.
There are many lure possibilities, but pick the one best for the environment you’re hoping to catch the fish.
Lines: With only three types of line, you’ll mostly be purchasing these from shops. The higher the durability, the longer it can hold out against tension (aka damage) inflicted by fish.
Rods: Rods provide defense, which determines how much tension damage on your line they cancel out. You can get better rods from shops and by completing sidequests for Nayth.
Reels: Reels determine how fast you knock out a fish’s stamina bar as you reel it in - basically your fish attack stat. Tackle shops have high-quality reels, but the very best reel is called Llymlaen and is a reward in the Totomostro mini-game.
All you have to have done to be able to fast travel to specific locations is visit them before with your car. Thus, running to a location on foot will not unlock the ability to fast travel there. From this article:
If, however, you’ve been to that place before, you will then have the option to simply fast travel there for 10 Gil. So as long as you have your car and have been to a location, you can fast travel there for a very low price. That’s all there is to it. This allows players to explore the world and see the sights, but doesn’t force them to do it over and over again.
Here is another article that supports the above claim that fast travel will be made available if you are at your car and have previously visited the location you want to fast travel to.
After visiting an Outpost or Parking Spot for the first time it becomes available for fast travel. The black “fog” on the map will clear up when you’ve visited a location. You must interact with your car, the Regalia and then select the target location on the map. You will be asked if you want to fast travel (which costs 10 Gil) or drive there. Pay the price of 10 Gil and you’ll see a loading screen and instantly arrive at your target.
Gamepur also supports that having previously visited a location will allow you to fast travel to it. In fact, it looks like even just driving past parking spots and rest stops will open up the option to fast travel.
Fast Travel is possible at any parking point that has already been visited by the Regalia. By parking the car at a parking point in locations such as Hammerhead or Galdin, that area will then be available for travel to from then on. Rest stops and car parks by the road are made available for fast travel simply by passing by them.
However, there are certain points where you will either be unable to fast travel to certain locations. You're typically notified when this is the case.
Things that would prevent you from being able to fast travel aside from story-related reasons would include being near enemies or attempting to do so at night prior to Ignis informing you that he is confident enough in your strength to be able to travel at nighttime. Ignis should tell you this when you around level 25-30, if I remember correctly.
Best Answer
The fish will move at random, though I often expect it to go opposite direction and anticipate it rather consistently with a handful of instances which it go the same direction it was headed before it jumped (to be fair, this seems to only happen when the fish is at edge of zone and just switched direction prior to jump).
As an aside I've noticed when the fish drops back in the water, there is often a 1-2 second break where it does nothing and I can reel without consequence.