1a) The wealthier a province is, the more difficult it is to convert. Look at a correlation between the economic strength of a province, and that modifier.
1b) The "Local Missionary Strength" modifier is a natural feature of Sunni Islam, it reduces the effectiveness of your missionaries there by 2.5%, the stock strength of a missionary varies. You can see you bonuses and maluses on the religion tab.
You cannot remove the Local Missionary strength modifier from the Sunni faith outside of creating a mod for your game, so the only way you are going to even have a chance of converting Islamic provinces is with the Religious idea's "Divine Supremacy".
2) I would say the best way to convert Islamic provinces is to pour points into the Religious idea, and then starve them for wealth by supporting rebellions (which sap province wealth over time).
UPDATE: According to recent changelogs, the bugs regarding Legatus Natus and PrimasGermaniae are fixed in Patch 1.4
Here the old answer with an explanation of the bug:
I just checked the event files for both events (LegatusNatus.txt and PrimasGermaniae.txt).
They behave pretty much in the same way, so I will only write it up for LegatusNatus.
From what I can gather, Mainz gets the title automatically within one month:
# Legatus Natus
country_event = {
...
trigger = {
papacy_active = yes <-- Pope must exist
tag = MAI <-- This only happens to Mainz
exists = yes <-- Mainz must exist
is_elector = yes <-- Mainz must be an elector
government = theocratic_government <-- Mainz has to be a theocracy
NOT = { has_country_flag = happened_763 }<-- The event has not happened yet
}
mean_time_to_happen = { months = 1 }
immediate = { set_country_flag = happened_763 }
option = {
name = "EVTOPTA763"
add_country_modifier = {
name = "legatus_natus"
duration = -1
}
}
}
And this is where things go wrong. For Mainz to get the title there is no need for a good papal relation, and Mainz starts out with a low one in fact.
However, the event for losing the title is as follows:
# Position as Legatus Natus Revoked
country_event = {
...
trigger = {
has_country_modifier = legatus_natus <-- Country must be legatus natus
OR = { <-- and either of the following is true
capital_scope = { is_part_of_hre = no } <-- not part of the HRE
NOT = { government = theocratic_government } <-- not a theocracy
NOT = { religion = catholic } <-- not catholic
NOT = { has_opinion ={ who = PAP value = 100 } } <-- not 100 relations with the Papal States
exists = no <-- Country not existing
}
}
mean_time_to_happen = { months = 1 }
option = {
name = "EVTOPTA964"
remove_country_modifier = legatus_natus
set_global_flag = no_legatus_natus
}
}
So within another month after getting the title Mainz will lose it again due to the Papal States not having an opinion of 100 of Mainz.
If that's no bug, I don't know what is.
I guess Mainz should either get good relations with the Papal States from the beginning or only get the title after they hit the 100 relations threshold.
Also the info text for losing the title is highly confusing. Nowhere does it say that you have to have good relations to the Papal States.
Best Answer
First off, the malus to tech cost is likely caused by being the Defender of Faith as it gives +5% Technology cost. You can hover over the cost in the technology menu to see what impacts it.
As you're the New World leader, you also possess an advantage by staying Catholic with the Treaty of Tordesillas. If you stay friends with the Pope, you'll get a settler bonus in every colonial region where you were the first to establish a colonial nation, and every other Catholic will be penalized for colonising there.
I wouldn't actually dismiss the Pope at all. Even while the Papal States themselves aren't too powerful, controlling the Curia has a ton of bonuses:
You can also get nice things from the Pope by spending Papal Influence independently of his power. Seriously, a powerful Papal States could prove a worthy ally for you as Spain if you don't have plans to expand further than you probably did by inheriting Naples.
Also, if you have the third Religious idea, you can declare holy wars on your heretic & heathen neighbours (regardless if you stay or flip), so keep that in mind for opportunities to strike.
Overall, I'd never flip early, if at all, as Spain, but rather see how the Reformation spreads out.