Will trading up StatTraks give me a StatTrak

If we relate to the model that is shown to us when we unbox items, i think that the possible listings are shuffled and then laid in a random order but with the very valuable items in the extremities of the list. I think when a case is opened, a random number is generated somehow that it has some kind of an average number, and average weapons standing in the middle of the list. From what i've seen on many unbox videos on youtube, if the roll is higher (you get further in the list), there is a greater chance to get a better weapon. However there are still some common ones past the "middle" area of the list.

I think nothing can be said certainly, just as in Dota 2, there is no certainty that you will get at least a mythical (or unusual) from a chest with lots of rares.

For item drops, it boils down to 3 categories:

1. Weapons
   • Individual skins that drop are parts of certain Collections
     • A year ago-ish several of the original weapon collection skins were retired, meaning you cannot receive them as a drop from the item-drop system
     • Collections that you can currently receive item-drops from
       • The Train Collection
       • The Mirage Collection
       • The Safehouse Collection
       • The Italy Collection
       • The Lake Collection
       • The Dust II Collection
       • The Bank Collection
   • Weapons originating from Cases cannot be found as a drop
   • StatTrak weapons cannot be found as a drop
2. Cases & Capsules
   • There are always 3-5 cases in rotation in the item drop system
   • As new cases come in, old cases are phased out.
   • Some cases are for Operation pass-holders
     • For instance, the current operation is called Operation Breakout, with a case called Operation Breakout Case
     • This means that the Operation Breakout Case will drop for only for Operation Breakout pass holders
   • Older Operation drops are available to anyone, but this usually up to Valve's discretion
     • The previous Operation, Operation Phoenix, had it's own case specific for its own passholders, called the Operation Phoenix Case
     • The Operation Phoenix case used to be only for passholders, but can now be received as an item drop by anyone
   • Sticker Capsules can drop
   • Exclusive Sticker Capsules cannot drop. For example, the Katowice 2014 Challengers capsule (had to be bought in-game)
3. Missions
   • This was introduced in Operation Breakout
   • Missions WILL not drop for players without the Operation Breakout Pass
   • Completing a mission will give you a weapon drop from 3 specific collections:
     • The Baggage Collection
     • The Overpass Collection
     • The Cobblestone Collection
     • This means the above 3 colletion weapons CANNOT be found through regular item-drop system