Is Deadly Aim worth it

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Deadly Aim is very similar to Power Attack in PF1, in that it reduces your chance to hit in exchange for some extra damage. In PF2 however the enemies' AC increases together with your attacks, so -2 penalty seems really big against +4 damage, espcecially for an 8th level class feat.

Is it a simple damage increase, circumstantial, or a trap?

Is there some specific build this is very good (or bad) for (bow/crossbow, precision/flurry)?


Boundary conditions:

  • we try to maximize DPR
  • the Ranger starts with 18 in Dex, and incrases it at every possibility

Best Answer

It's (sorta) a trap!

I've run the numbers for a Ranger vs at level Moderate, High, and Extreme ACs. I don't have a magic formula for you (I'm not so good at that, and Medix2's answer is way better than I could do there), but I do have magic graphs!

The TL;DR: Deadly Aim is basically only worth it for non-Precision rangers when fighting against extreme AC targets. This means if gives you decent damage increases against bosses as well (i.e. higher level enemies).

Chart Assumptions

Each chart looks at four types of rangers. A ranger doing a normal attack, a ranger doing a deadly aim attack, and then both of those again, but factoring in Precision Edge. The Precision Edge stuff is actually a little misleading, because you have two more actions to apply that! Maybe follow up with Hunter's Aim or something. All of these consider a ranger using a composite shortbow and automatic bonus progression. Every time we get a +1 potency bump, I add another d6 damage, assuming that you add another damage rune to your weapon (e.g. Flaming, Frost, Shocking, etc.). This ranger also starts with 16 strength, but has 18 by the time they reach level 8, meaning they'll get +2 from Propulsive for the rest of their career.

Chart 1 - vs Moderate AC

EDITED Deadly Aim is not worth it, but only barely. It does start out as roughly equal (for levels 8 and 9 it technically does 0.05 more expected damage on the non-Precision ranger, but then never catches up).

Expected Average Damage vs On-Level Moderate AC

Chart 2 -- vs High AC

Deadly aim is actually rarely better here, and usually is equal. If you can get your enemy flat-footed (or grab a bonus to hit), then it's probably going to look more like the Moderate AC chart. Without those, Deadly Aim is a trap.

Expected Average Damage vs On-Level High AC

Chart 3 -- vs Extreme AC

Deadly aim gets to be the same or better than normal for all levels for a normal ranger. The Precision ranger finally sees Deadly Aim being okay. Extreme AC corresponds roughly to a High AC of two levels higher, so this is probably the chart to look at for boss enemies.

Expected Average Damage vs On-Level Extreme AC

Conclusion

EDITED Deadly Aim seems to be useful in situations where aiming, IRL, would be useful; when targets are harder to hit. I would use this less when you have bonuses to hit (somewhat intuitively), because those bonuses are likely to increase your crit range. But when you are only going to crit on a natural 20, it seems that Deadly Aim may actually be your friend. Indeed, that is the commonality behind all the places where Deadly Aim is useful for a high DC (on a normal ranger). The Precision Ranger has a higher base damage, which in turn makes Deadly Aim less worth it; if we extrapolate from that, Deadly Aim would be even more worth it when you have lower base damage (e.g. non-composite Shortbow, non-applicable damage runes (or non-damaging runes) on your weapon) or when you don't benefit as much from critting (i.e. you are using a Daikyu).

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