Yes, for D&D 3.5 the Pathfinder Adventure Path "Curse of the Crimson Throne" deals with a plague in the city of Korvosa and they've published some various rules for diseases and plagues. Specifically, Seven Days to the Grave has an article entitled "Plague and Pestilence: Diseases of Fantasy and Reality", which besides having diseases and gear relevant to diseases has some treatment of larger scale plagues (outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics). Then they updated those rules to Pathfinder as part of the Affliction rules in general and added a lot of real-world tropical diseases in the recent Heart of the Jungle supplement.
And lucky for you, a lot of that has found its way into the Disease section of the Pathfinder SRD!
Here's how it works, I'll illustrate with my favorite sample disease, dysentery.
Dysentery
A broad family of intestinal
afflictions caused by everything from
bacteria to viruses to parasitic
worms, dysentery is characterized by
explosive and sometimes bloody
diarrhea, leading to dehydration and
occasionally death.
Type disease (parasite), contact or
injury; Save Fortitude DC 16
Onset 1d3 days; Frequency 1/day
Effect 1d6 nonlethal damage and target
is fatigued and staggered; Cure 2
consecutive saves
This means that when you're exposed you have to make a Fort save DC 16 or else you get the disease and it manifests symptoms in 1d3 days. You make a new save every day once it manifests and if you fail you take 1d6 nonlethal and are fatigued and staggered. You have to make 2 consecutive saves to get better; with this one it doesn't run its course otherwise.
I see these examples (not just for the bard, but for all classes) as very good ways of showing how those classes exist in the world, what their roles are, and how they fit into the game from a narrative perspective.
That being said, the examples need not represent spellcasting at all. Not all spellcasting requires material components or a focus of some sort. In the examples provided, I can just as easily see those as representations of the bard's class features rather than the bard casting spells. I also don't know that the examples need to exactly match what can be done in game, for the same reason -- they're narrative examples, not gameplay examples. They might also be incomplete examples.
The first example is most likely a demonstration of the bard casting Legend Lore, which has V, S, and M components. The M components for this spell have a specific cost (250gp worth of incense and 4 ivory strips worth at least 50gp each), which means a bardic focus can't be used to cast it, so in this case, if she is casting Legend Lore (and it sounds like it, from the narrative description) there is no bardic focus.
The second and third examples seem to be narrative descriptions of various uses of the bardic class feature Bardic Inspiration which also doesn't require any sort of focus or musical instrument.
To address your specific concerns:
Is it reasonable to assume that RAW or at least RAI that the
implication is that in the case of bards, they can use 1) their voice,
2) an improvised musical instrument, or 3) a bought musical
instrument?
As far as RAW is concerned, you have one option: a musical instrument. I understand this is vague. The description in Chapter 5, Equipment (5e SRD) says:
Musical Instrument. Several of the most common types of musical instruments are shown on the table as examples. If you have proficiency with a given musical instrument, you can add your proficiency bonus to any ability checks you make to play music
with the instrument. A bard can use a musical instrument as a spellcasting focus. Each type of musical instrument requires a separate proficiency.
The table in question is the Tools table, relevant section reproduced below:
\begin{array}{r|ccc}
\text{Musical Instrument} & \text{Cost(gp)} & \text{Weight(lbs)}\\
\hline
\text{Bagpipes} & 30 & 6 \\
\text{Drum} & 6 & 3 \\
\text{Dulcimer} & 25 & 10 \\
\text{Flute} & 2 & 1 \\
\text{Lute} & 35 & 2 \\
\text{Lyre} & 30 & 2 \\
\text{Horn} & 3 & 2 \\
\text{Panflute} & 12 & 2 \\
\text{Shawm} & 2 & 1 \\
\text{Viol} & 30 & 1 \\
\end{array}
This list is not meant to be exhaustive, of course, and your bard could use any musical instrument that exists in your world. However, the fact that playing a musical instrument has a specific entry in the rules says to me it's more than just banging on something and making noise. The fact the they require proficiency says to me that not just anyone can bang on a drum to make music. I also take it to mean that the bard requires proficiency in the instrument in order to use it as a bardic focus. This is not explicit but it stands to reason, since you need proficiency to 'use' a musical instrument, and a bard must use the instrument as a bardic focus -- this is the RAI part. I have a hard time believing that any designer intended to allow a bard to use a lute as a focus without being able to actually play the lute.
Taking all of this into consideration, I think it would be a stretch to allow a bard to bang on his armor, hum a few bars, or use some other type of improvised musical instrument, and without proficiency, use that as his bardic spellcasting focus.
Voice -- No. And even if so, you'd have a hard time saying your
verbal components if you're also humming out a few bars as your
arcane focus.
Improvised instrument -- No. You don't have
proficiency in "banging on your armor."
A purchased instrument -- Yes. No problem there; it's in the rules.
And if such an assumption isn't RAW/RAI, what are the implications to
allowing it as a house rule?
Not too much of a problem here. It's a cool narrative device. Spellcasting foci aren't required ("you can use a [thing] as a spellcasting focus" in every mention of foci in the class rules). It doesn't really affect the bard's ability to cast his spells whether he has a focus or not -- there's always the option of a component pouch -- and not all spells require foci. All in all if you want to allow it there's no real problem; in the end it doesn't make much of a difference.
Best Answer
Instead of looking for fantasy in the modern-fiction sense, I'd start by looking under collections of fairy tales and folk tales. They're widely studied, freely available, and often well-suited to being retold in generic forms or other settings. And this is the source material from which all modern fantasy draws. I recommend looking for children's versions; these tend to simplify the tale down to the most basic elements - important if you want to get the story smoothly worked in to your roleplay.
A few sites to get you started:
Dr. Ashliman's Folklore etexts
Grimm's Fairy Tales, naturally.
Aaron's World of Stories
You also can't go far wrong with Perrault, but of course those stories are now so well known it's hard for your audience not to be too far ahead of you.
Failing that, any fantasy short stories collection is bound to have a few, with a little adaptation. (The Baen Books free ebook library is a frequent go-to source of mine for light reading and new universes, but less suited to your needs.)