What you posit is reasonable except for one thing: The Deck of Many Things has a random outcome that the DM determines by a die roll.
As a magical artifact, I would say that it consists, as a whole of the cards it contains, not of a bunch of independent magical cards. The whole Deck itself is the magic item here, not the cards themselves, they are just pieces/components of the larger artifact. So the individual cards do not necessarily have an independent existence outside of the deck, nor any independent, fixed or specific order inside of it. When a character draws a card it is "randomly" determined by the Deck.
And this element of randomness is very important to the artifacts nature and being (in fact I would say that it is the central attribute of it). So, technically, the DM should re-roll the die if the draw/turn gets re-set, not just play it as though there now (or ever was) any specific pre-determined card on the top of the deck. (of course that's up to the DM).
Look at it this way: If a party engaged in combat resets the turn with Forced Dream, is the DM going to say that the turn gets played over, but everybody get's exactly the same attack and damage rolls as the first time? Or does the DM rule that everything has to be re-rolled fresh and as it happens? My guess is most DMs would say the second, both for combat and for the Deck. Which means that while Forced Dream could be used to avoid a bad outcome from the Deck, it could not be used to then force that same bad outcome on someone or something else: it gets a new random roll.
The Deck of Many Things is a Legendary, Wondrous Magic Item.
The Arcana skill is written as follows (Emphasis Mine):
Arcana: Your Intelligence (Arcana) check measures your ability to recall lore about spells, magic items, eldritch symbols, magical traditions, the planes of existence, and the inhabitants of those planes.
You simply need to roll a knowledge check against your Arcana skill. It will be up to GM discretion whether or not the roll applies to the whole deck or to each card you draw. You will also have to talk to your GM and decide between you whether or not it is reasonable for your character to have prior knowledge of the deck given their background, as the Arcana skill states only that it allows you to recall the information, not to suddenly figure it all out on the spot.
If you decide that your character did not have reasonable prior access to this knowledge, you may be able to, at a later time, study the deck to gain this knowledge.
But, if you decide your character did indeed have prior knowledge of the deck, and you pass the roll, your character will recall the effects of the Rogue card and know that somebody is out to get you, though you don't know who.
If you fail the roll, your character draws a blank and can't remember what the card does.
Best Answer
Only if you're carrying it at the time. You don't have to hold the deck in order to draw from it. You can have it sitting on a table or something.
The more interesting question is whether or not the Talons card itself is destroyed if you are not carrying the whole deck. I think that one's unclear enough for DM adjudication, though bias is to "no". The Deck specifically lists which of its cards are self-destroying, and Talons isn't on the list.