[RPG] How does replacing Advantage with a flat +2 affect Champion critical hit damage output

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My DM does not like Advantage/Disadvantage. While I disagree with his reasons on this, he has decided to replace it with a +2/-2 rule and I respect him (mostly) enough to follow his rules.

I recently realized that this probably has significant impact on my champion fighter, who gets critical on 19/20. Since I will still need to roll natural 19/20, and natural 19s and 20s will be less likely without the second die from advantage, I'm interested in knowing mathematically how much this house rule affects me.

Assuming the fighter is using a d8 weapon (war pick), what is his average damage output including a % chance for critical in using both Advantage/Disadvantage as well as the +2/-2 rule?

AnyDice would be appreciated so I can tweak as needed. I can't seem to wrap my head around how to do the math!

Best Answer

Assumptions

I'm going to be making the following assumptions, based on what you've already provided:

  • 3rd level (since you get a crit on a 19 or 20)
  • 16 Strength (no ASI to bump up to 18)
  • Fighting a CR 3 creature (for base math)
  • Average damage is 7.50 (4.50 from the die +3 Str mod)
  • Average crit damage is 12.00 (4.50 per die +3 Str mod)
  • Attack bonus is +5 (+2 prof, +3 Str mod)
  • The enemy has AC 13 (per the DMG guidelines on page 274)
  • DPR calculations are:
    • Crit damage = Crit % x average crit hit damage
    • Normal damage = Hit % x average hit damage
    • hit % = 100 – [miss %] – [crit %]

Note that any flat modifier to the damage total won't change with a crit, since you only double the dice rolled, not the modifiers added.

Champion Fighter

Per the DMG page 274, a CR3 creature has an average AC 13, meaning you need to roll an 8 or higher.

With Advantage

AnyDice can tell us our miss chance and our crit chance. From there, we know our hit chance.

  • A normal roll of 1d20 will have a 35% miss, 10.00% crit (1.20 DPR), and 55.00% normal hit (4.13 DPR) for a total DPR of 5.33
  • A roll with advantage will have a 12.25% miss, 19.00% crit (2.28 DPR), and 68.75% normal hit (5.16 DPR) for a total DPR of 7.44
  • A roll with your DMs +2 rule will have a 25.00% miss, 10.00% crit (1.20 DPR), and a 65.00% normal hit (4.88 DPR) for a total DPR of 6.08

With Disadvantage

AnyDice can tell us our miss chance and our crit chance. From there, we know our hit chance.

  • A normal roll of 1d20 will have a 35% miss, 10.00% crit (1.20 DPR), and 55.00% normal hit (4.13 DPR) for a total DPR of 5.33 (unchanged)
  • A roll with disadvantage will have a 42.25% miss, 1.00% crit (0.12 DPR), and 56.75% normal hit (4.26 DPR) for a total DPR of 4.38
  • A roll with your DMs -2 rule will have a 45.00% miss, 10.00% crit (1.20 DPR), and a 45.00% normal hit (3.38 DPR) for a total DPR of 4.58

Rogue

How does this change affect other classes, specifically those who rely on bonus damage dice? I'm using a rogue for this example since sneak attack is easy enough to calculate, but a paladin falls under the same heading with their smite spells and the like.

We use the same percentages and base damage (assume Dex and a rapier) for our fighter, but we add sneak attack damage. That's 2d6 at level 3, so with advantage we add +2d6 (7) on a hit and +4d6 (14) on a crit. Attacks without advantage don't get sneak attack damage added in, so the disadvantage numbers from above carry over (I know you can get sneak attack damage without advantage, but we'll ignore that for simplicity).

With Advantage

  • A normal roll of 1d20 will have a 35% miss, 5.00% crit (1.30 DPR), and 60.00% normal hit (8.70 DPR) for a total DPR of 10
  • A roll with advantage will have a 12.25% miss, 9.75% crit (2.54 DPR), and 78.00% normal hit (11.31 DPR) for a total DPR of 13.85
  • A roll with your DMs +2 rule will have a 25.00% miss, 5.00% crit (1.30 DPR), and a 70.00% normal hit (10.15 DPR) for a total DPR of 11.45

With Disadvantage

  • A normal roll of 1d20 will have a 35% miss, 5.00% crit (1.30 DPR), and 60.00% normal hit (8.70 DPR) for a total DPR of 10
  • A roll with disadvantage will have a 42.25% miss, 1.00% crit (0.12 DPR), and 56.75% normal hit (4.26 DPR) for a total DPR of 4.38 (identical to the fighter, as no advantage means no sneak attack)
  • A roll with your DMs -2 rule will have a 45.00% miss, 5.00% crit (1.20 DPR), and a 50.00% normal hit (2.25 DPR) for a total DPR of 3.45

Conclusion

With your DMs proposed houserule, the expected DPR for any class is going to be decreased because of the fact that you're still only rolling 1 die, so the chance of a critical hit will not change. The biggest, well, advantage of rolling with advantage is it almost doubles your chance of a crit: 9.75% vs. 5.00% for a normal 20 crit and 19.00% vs. 10% for a champion fighter crit.

Indeed, that simple change reduces the overall expected damage output of the entire party, especially those classes that rely on burst damage in the form of more dice. As you gain in levels and get the extra attack feature, magic items/spells that add damage dice, and class features that change the damage dice done, the gap will only increase.