[RPG] How reliable is Druidcraft weather prediction


Barring Control Weather or other unnaturally weather alteration, how reliable is the weather prediction part of Druidcraft cantrip?

You create a tiny, harmless sensory effect that predicts what the weather will be at your location for the next 24 hours. The effect might manifest as a golden orb for clear skies, a cloud for rain, falling snowflakes for snow, and so on. This effect persists for 1 round.

Someone mentioned that this can be used to predict cloudy night to prepare sneaking into the castle. But can the prediction fail without magical interference?

Best Answer

It's very reliable. According to the description, it "predicts what the weather will be". No ifs, ands, or buts. This suggests perfect accuracy.

That said, it's not very precise. (Precision is not the same as accuracy.)

The description isn't clear whether it shows a single effect that predicts the weather over 24 hours, or if it changes in appearance over the course of the round (6 seconds) depending on the weather. Either way, if it shows you that you have a cloudy night, that doesn't mean it will be cloudy for the entire night, or at any particular moment. So if you're sneaking into a castle, be prepared for the moon to shine through an inconvenient gap in the clouds.

Similarly, it says it shows the weather "at your location". This is equally imprecise - it could be anything from the exact point you're standing at the time to the entire region you happen to be in. In the first case, unless you snuck into the castle to do your weather prediction for sneaking into the castle, be prepared for the weather to be a little bit different. In the second case, you only have a very vague idea. The city where I live often predicts rain, but I don't often see any - it mostly rains down the south end.

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