[RPG] Rulebook Requirements for Curse of Strahd

Head designer Mike Mearls has tweeted

Lots of Q's about the staggered release: You will not need the MM or DMG to run a campaign. Or the PH or Starter Set to make a character.

To what extent this is true in practice remains to be seen! To me, the last point suggests they might have some basic resources available online for free, which might include a small amount of monsters.

And indeed, they have now announced "Basic D&D". The key quote:

At the launch of the D&D Starter Set, Basic D&D will include the material needed to create characters and advance to 20th level. In August, with the release of the Player’s Handbook, Basic D&D will expand to include the essential monsters, magic items, and DM rules needed to run the game, along with the rules for wilderness, dungeon, and urban adventuring. (The Starter Set already covers the aspects of these rules that you need to run the included campaign.)

They will also update Basic to keep it compatible with released adventures:

As we introduce new storylines like Tyranny of Dragons, we’ll also make available free PDFs that provide all the rules and stats missing from Basic D&D needed to run the adventures tied into the story. The adventures released as part of Tyranny of Dragons are playable without requiring any of the core rulebooks or the Starter Set.

Let me start off by saying that Curse of Strahd certainly has some very challenging encounters, many of which can be stumbled into at points when the party is woefully under-levelled. I've only run it once so far, but that did end in a TPK.

In Vallaki, the party has the opportunity to run into a nest of vampire spawn whilst investigating a coffin maker's shop. The coffin maker (at least under my interpretation) is being kept as an unwilling servant/hostage of these vampires. I tried to give as many hints as possible that the coffin maker was scared of something in the shop - he was glancing over his shoulder, refused to let them in, would only speak in a whisper and asked the party to meet him later 'somewhere safe' suggesting the inn. Unfortunately the party didn't take the hint. Instead, they separated, two distracted the coffin maker, whilst the remainder broke into his house. I tried to give further hints - letting them spot many footsteps around large body sized crates in the dust of the storage room. I even pointed out that the cleric in the party felt something deeply disturbing from the room. Irrespective, he cracked open the crates, triggered an enormous fight and ended up dying.

It's important to note, however, that this type of danger is a common feature of sandbox campaigns. On top of that, this is a horror campaign - it is not unreasonable that if the characters poke around the dark corners of Barovia whilst uninformed of what lies within, they may end up angering something much more powerful than themselves. I personally feel that without such a threat, the player paranoia and tension necessary to maintain an effective horror theme can end up being lost or diminished.

Players should be made aware of this when starting the campaign and they should note that often discretion will be the better part of valor. It also behooves the DM to provide more narrative warning in such cases - signs of danger, direct warnings from NPCs, and (for when it all goes awry) avenues of escape. Even with this, however, encounters can and should have the potential to be fatal. At that point it is down to each DM how such an encounter plays out - nothing precludes you from granting strokes of luck, fudging rolls, or throwing in timely ally arrivals when things go south. Only you know your players and the game you are running, hence it's up to you and what you most feel makes for a fun game around your table.

With regards to your specific examples:

Death House - this is a hard starting adventure, but one that I found to really set the scene and vibe of the campaign. The shadows at the statue, the two ghasts, and the shambling mound stand out as all potentially being fatal encounters. The shadows, however, are extremely avoidable and are essentially a consequence of a lack of caution. Much of their threat depends on the party composition and their ability to output magical damage. Contrary to the book I would probably not have the shadows pursue the party out of the room, and may have them vanish if (for example) the orb was returned. The ghasts and the mound are tough, but certainly doable if the characters play smart.

and

Bonegrinder - I feel that warnings discouraging the party from entering too early are key to this adventure. The Vistani at Tser Pool may have warned the party away from there, knowing their destination and based upon what is written on pg. 28. Additionally, the raven should be extremely vocal in trying to ward off the players. Remember, the raven will be in league with the wereravens of Vallaki and essentially a force of good. Hence, assuming the party did head in and end up in fight against the three hags, having the raven summon help in the form of a swarm or a wereraven may be one solution to avoiding a TPK.