[RPG] the average number of draws it takes before you can not draw any more cards from the Deck of Many Things

dnd-5emagic-itemsstatistics

When thinking about this question regarding an upper limit on the number of draws, I wondered what would be the expected number of draws you can actually pull off if you called for a large number of draws.

The limiting factors I see are the cards Donjon and The Void which say:

You draw no more cards

…and Talons which would destroy the deck:

Every magic item you wear or carry disintegrates.

The ideal answer would discuss any difference between a 13-card and 22-card deck.

Note after comment by findsul: Assume The Fates card isn't used in connection to your draws.

Best Answer

7.166 for a 22-card deck, 12.5 for a 13-card deck

Xirema has it basically right, albeit approximately. But we can do this without code and get a precise answer.

Take a 20-card deck. Odds of drawing a terminal card are 3/20, so expected number of draws are 20/3, which is 6.66...

Now take a 21-card deck. We have a 4 in 21 chance of pulling either the self-removing card or a terminal, so there are 21/4 (5.25) draws on average until this happens. We then have a 3/4 chance of being done and a 1/4 chance of being in the 20-card deck situation. So expected number of draws to draw a terminal is 5.25 + 1/4(6.66) = 6.9166...

Finally, a 22-card deck gives us 22/5 (4.4) draws until we hit a terminal or self-removing card, so the expected number of possible draws is 4.4 + 2/5(6.9166) = 7.166.

We can do similar for the 13-card example - a 12-card deck averages 12 draws, then the 13-card deck gives you an expectation of 13/2 + 1/2(12) = 6.5 + 6 = 12.5