[RPG] What would be the minimum human population to sustain a single vampire indefinitely

vampire-the-masqueradeworld-of-darkness

As per question in the title.

I recognise that there are numerous criteria that would affect this, however, I am looking for a baseline estimate that could be modified as per specific vampire (his humanity, feeding habits, discipline usage etc.) I would assume that the said vampire is drinking about 2-3 points of blood per night and never kills his victim. However, I struggle to estimate anything else than a herd size (which is composed of exclusively fit-for-purpose healthy people). Assuming that it takes about four months to recover from a loss of a point of blood without any detrimental health effects (implied by the facts that a point is about a pint, that is about a single blood donation and the medical recommendation is to donate blood at most three times a year), I propose the following calculation:

3 * 1 * 4 * 31 = 372 people required to every night feed on 3 different people, drawing 1 point of blood for four months of 31 days, so that no person is bitten twice in this period.

But that doesn't explain how many "real" people would be necessary to at all times have no less than 372 healthy specimens for an indefinite amount of time (self-sustaining population).

Could you explain how to get that number and what would be the major contributing factors?

If this question is not fit to appear here, I could possibly ask in some medical SE instead. Please comment if that's the case.

Some people ask me for purpose, let me explain.
That's not supposed to be a tool to estimate the vampire population in a given city. Instead I'm thinking about a single vampire living in a remote area without a practical possibility of leaving (think Tzimisce in a settlement surrounded by werewolves in the middle of Siberian taiga). I am trying to establish how many people should such a vampire have around him to survive by purely local means. I want to take into consideration aspect like not everyone having being suitable to be fed upon, naturally occurring illnesses, necessity of children to replace the elderly etc. to create a situation where a trapped Cainite struggles to keep himself alive. There are some imminent dangers to him, hence his usage of disciplines (additional 2 points per night) but he is aware that overfeeding would steer the population to a decline. I would like that status quo to last for more than five decades. No, I don't want to factor in the social problems of people gradually noticing his presence, I'd rather think of superstitious community who treats it as a curse over a town that has no explanation and him being extra careful to influence mortals into having a lot of children and not leaving, as a local prince could in the medieval times – only in contemporary setting.

Mortals are not supposed to be willing participants, if it were like that, I'd just go with Herd Background and assume no overhead of spouses, children and elders is needed.

Best Answer

Like many things, it depends. Your calculations are quite reasonable and 372 should give your vampire enough, in fact it has a decent margin of error in it. It has a decent margin of error because a healthy person can give more than 1 BP in a night. I don't have the book handy, but I'm pretty sure they can give up to 3 BP before their life is endangered. Also a healthy person can give blood more often than the medical guidelines indicate. Further, the vampire can, at least to a degree, self regulate and avoid using unnecessary blood. You will still average well above 1BP a night, but a vampire that avoids fights and is deliberately conservative about blood use can probably come in under 2-3 BP a night on average.

So, as you say 372 will provide enough, and even give some safety margin. But that is 372 adults that are at least healthy enough to "contribute" three times a year. You are asking how many would be in a community to give you those 372 healthy adults.

And that depends. You want the birth rate to be equal to or greater than the death rate, but death rates are highly variable in different time periods and different parts of the world depending on circumstances. In the United States, for instances the crude death rate is 8 per 1,000 people per year. Going with that number and ignoring the fact that that is per 1,000 in the entire population and we are only looking at health adults in our 372, he can expect to lose around 3 of his herd each year. That means to be sustainable he needs 3 that are about to become old enough waiting in the wings. If we say they are "adult enough" at 16 and we want this to be indefinite we need 3 children at each age between newborn and 15 waiting around. So, in addition to our 372 adults, we need 48 children waiting around.

Incidentally, the crude birth rate in the US is 14 per 1000 people, so for our 372 adults we could expect an average birth rate (if comparable to US) of 5, easily more than the 3 we need.

Currently, this brings us to 420 to be sustainable. But, you also won't be able to count those with chronic infirmities that prevent them from contributing, like the very elderly. But how many elderly you have also depends. If the death rate is high, you probably won't have many. If you have customs of senicide (killing or suicide of the elders), then again you won't have many. If the vampire has a firm hold and wants to keep the population to a minimum, he might well create such a custom or else "cull" his herd of any not of use to him. If he does this ruthlessly, than 420 is enough with a decent safety margin. But, if he doesn't do this then he will have some additional people. In the US our population over 65 is 13% of total. With a base of 420 people, this makes 483 people total (13% of 483 is 63), so if this is a rough estimate of the number in his population he can't eat than we are up to 483.

I'm ignoring the temporarily sick because (unless there is an epidemic hitting a large percentage of the population) he can easily bypass them for a week and just come back. In short, they are absorbed into the safety margin.

So, I've played rather loose with a lot of the estimates and erred on the side of the vampire being cautious, but a population of 483 could sustain a vampire forever. This of course adds in the assumption that there won't be any huge deviations from average. If there is a war or plague or famine that wipes out a large portion of the population, he will have trouble.

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