A good way to analyze the differences between the two distributions is to imagine a head-to-head contest between characters.
First, suppose you have two identical characters, A
and B
, rolling off against each other with d20. They tie 5% of the time; 47.5% of the time one wins; 47.5% of the time the other wins. In contrast, if you use 3d6, ties occur 9.2% of the time and each wins 45.4% of the time. Not a huge deal. Let's discard the ties and just concentrate on who wins more, A
or B
. Now let's start giving them bonuses. Since we haven't said who is whom, we'll just declare that A
is the stronger one and B
is the weaker one.
A's bonus 3d6 d20 3d6 ratio
========= ===================== ===================== over
========= A-wins B-wins ratio A-wins B-wins ratio d20 ratio
--------- ------ ------ ----- ------ ------ ----- ---------
+0 45.36% 45.36% 1.0 47.50% 47.50% 1.0 1.0
+1 54.64% 36.31% 1.5 52.50% 42.75% 1.2 1.2
+2 63.69% 27.94% 2.3 57.25% 38.25% 1.5 1.5
+3 72.06% 20.58% 3.5 61.75% 34.00% 1.8 1.9
+4 79.42% 14.46% 5.5 66.00% 30.00% 2.2 2.5
+5 85.54% 9.65% 8.9 70.00% 26.25% 2.7 3.3
+6 90.35% 6.08% 14.9 73.75% 22.75% 3.2 4.6
+7 93.92% 3.59% 26.2 77.25% 19.50% 4.0 6.6
+8 96.41% 1.97% 49.0 80.50% 16.50% 4.9 10.0
+9 98.03% 0.99% 99.0 83.50% 13.75% 6.1 16.3
+10 99.01% 0.45% 220.0 86.25% 11.25% 7.7 28.7
+11 99.55% 0.18% 552.9 88.75% 9.00% 9.9 56.1
+12 99.82% 0.06% 1663 91.00% 7.00% 13.0 127.9
+13 99.94% 0.02% 6661 93.00% 5.25% 17.7 376.0
+14 99.98% 0.00% 46649 94.75% 3.75% 25.3 1846.3
Okay, so what does this tell us?
First, we can see that with big bonuses, A
slaughters B
head-to-head in rolls in 3d6, whereas with d20 the benefit that A
gets over B
is pretty modest (has to get all the way up to +11 before A
is tenfold more likely to win than B
!).
But, second, if you look at the ratio of ratios (that is, how much advantage A
vs B
has in 3d6 compared to A
vs B
in d20), you find that in 3d6
the bonus is pretty much squared compared to d20 (low values only--then it gets way, way more extreme later on).
So, what does this mean? Well, basically, if under 3d6 you have a +1 bonus more than someone else, it feels like a +2 difference in d20. +7 feels like +14.
So the concise explanation is: moving from d20 to 3d6 amplifies differences, making them feel about twice as large as before. (Of course, almost nothing is actually resolved as a head-to-head test, but it's a useful thought experiment.) You can cleave through hordes of lesser beings with that much more ease, and your betters become that much more fearsome. In fact, better just stay away from them. There are some kobolds that need slaying. Right? Right.
Yes
This is, of course, intentional. One of the problems that D&D has always faced is that characters often have wildly different skill values, which can cause issues where some players get sidelined during skill-heavy sessions, because their characters don't have any of the right skills.
4e tried to rectify the problem of disparate skills in two ways: Skills were no longer based on Intelligence, and everyone got bonuses to every skill as they leveled up. 5e continues this trend: Players generally get the same(ish) number of skills, and the difference between skilled and not skilled isn't as large as it was in 3e.
The non-combat difference between level 1 and level 20 characters is not in how high their numbers are, but in their other capabilities. For example, a level 20 Rogue might not have an Athletics check that's that much higher than his level 1 counterpart, but his Second-story Work ability lets him climb much faster regardless. His Reliable Talent feature makes it so he never has a roll that's super bad. And his extra Expertise skills mean that even if he fails the Athletics roll, he probably has a high bonus in other skills that can help him finish his task anyway.
You are correct that the bounded accuracy rules mean that high level 5e characters aren't the invulnerable demigods that they were in previous editions. However, they are still versatile, powerful heroes that are still likely to (eventually) succeed at everything they do against a small number of low level characters.
Best Answer
None
Play testing for D&D Next which became 5e was subject to a non-disclosure agreement. WotC know but they aren’t saying.