What information is available about the intended mathematics of D&D

dnd-5egame-designstatistics

D&D 5e was heavily play-tested prior to its release. I have heard (but have not verified) that, at low levels, the hit rate of the attack rolls of PCs was intentionally optimized to be approximately 2 in 3. Presumably, this probability was chosen deliberately by WotC, then – through simulations, models, and tests – features were added/removed/tweaked until it was realized according to some metric. I am interested in information about this process.
What information, if any, is publicly available about the play-testing process for D&D 5e and about the outcomes (such as this 2/3 hit-rate) that were optimized for during play-testing?

I am not asking why any rules are the way they are or why any of the particular math was used. I am asking what math was used and what information has been published/leaked/discussed about it.

This question is similar to my question. Its top answer links to pages documenting the design goals of D&D, including some details of the play-testing process (for example, here). However that question is about the general design goals while this question is about the math and the methods of simulating/modeling/quantifying the game. It does to link to relevant information, however.

Best Answer

None

Play testing for D&D Next which became 5e was subject to a non-disclosure agreement. WotC know but they aren’t saying.