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Wireless World

Here's the start of the story Callithumpian found in Wireless World (possibly volume 88, 1982):

In your February issue, Pat Hawker mentions "SNAFU" as a coinage of War II. I think he and your readers may be interested to know its pre-war origin.

During the said war it was my pleasure to work for a time with two clever and humorous American Western Electric telephone engineers, and they told me that their pre-war jobs had been to go to telephone exchanges where there was trouble and rectify it. Upon arrival at the site an engineer would make a brief estimate of how serious was the trouble, establish a telephone link to his headquarters and send back a code word. His home base would therefore know he had arrived where the problems were, have a rough idea of how long it would take to clear them and have a telephone number where he could be contacted if need be. There were three code words: SNAFU - Situation normal, all fouled up" (or words to that effect); TARFU - "Things are really fouled up"; and FUBAR - "Fouled up beyond any repair". The latter would be sent if, for instance, a telephone exchange had been seriously damaged by fire or flood, while SNAFU would be used for a situation where cables or machinery had been damaged but where repairs or replacement would be ...

OED

Back to SNAFU. The OED says it's also originally US military slang, with the first citation from a September 1941 edition of American Notes & Queries, apparently in reply to a May 1941 article:

<< ARMY AIR SLANG (1:22 May '41)

The influence of air slang seems to have had no effect on army lingo here. There is very little, in all, that could be called really new: and most of it is unprintable. But if AN&Q would like these three — just for the record — here they are:

latrine-o-gram — baseless rumor (the latrine is the source of many a baseless rumor!)
snafu — situation normal
susfu — situation unchanged

Private "W"
Camp Forrest, Tenn.

This suggests SNAFU entered army slang from air slang.

Don Taylor

Roaring Fish found another etymology of SNAFU from Don Taylor (wayback). Taylor says in April or May of 1941 (before Pearl Harbor) during radio network training at Camp San Luis Obispo, California, it came from a mechanical coding device that scrambled messages into five letter code groups. He and John Paup entertained themselves by forming initialisms from the codes.

Taylor's son Greg (wayback) writes:

One day, as he recalls, he received a code group S.N.A.F.U. from Johnny Paup.

"It was instantaneous, inevitable, and there was no question," the words came to him; "SITUATION NORMAL, ALL F - - - - D UP! To Taylor and other enlisted types, this perfectly described the military growing pains before and just after Pearl Harbor.

Eventually S.N.A.F.U. spread like V.D. in an off base W - - - E house. It went everywhere there was radio communication. The Pentagon literally survived on various levels of "SNAFU" until Warner Brothers picked up on it for their training film star!

Don continues:

As to how it spread, there is no way of knowing for certain. I think initially it got spread all over the 40th Infantry Division. At that point in time people were being sent to training schools such as Fort Monmouth, N.J., & Fort Benning Georgia. People from other divisions would be attending such schools and would take "SNAFU" back to their outfits when their training was completed. We also had people that were already proficient in certain jobs and they were sent in small groups to become the nucleus for new Divisions. There were also a number of individuals that were sent to Officer Candidate schools.

OED antedatings

Taylor's story is discussed on the Snopes forums:

Fred Shapiro has provided evidence that "snafu" was in use at Camp Joseph T. Robinson (North Little Rock, Arkansas) in late July, 1941, a sighting that slightly antedates that which the OED provides. (I've also found two instances of "snafu" in use in early August, 1941, also with regard to khaki field hats. As with Shapiro's July find, soldiers from Kansas reported using the term at Camp Robinson. There's no indication in these August newspaper articles that "snafu" is an acronym, but a private does describe the new hats as "horrible," so one might assume that "snafu" generally referred to things and situations "all fucked up.")

I guess a question, then, is whether there's enough time for an acronym said to have been coined in San Luis Obispo in April/May 1941 to have made it to North Little Rock by late July. I think it's at least possible, given that the explanation in the link in the OP offers an origin in radio transmission and mentions that,

Quote: As to how it spread, there is no way of knowing for certain. I think initially it got spread all over the 40th Infantry Division. At that point in time people were being sent to training schools such as Fort Monmouth, N.J., & Fort Benning Georgia. People from other divisions would be attending such schools and would take "SNAFU" back to their outfits when their training was completed. We also had people that were already proficient in certain jobs and they were sent in small groups to become the nucleus for new Divisions. There were also a number of individuals that were sent to Officer Candidate schools.

Note that Shapiro's July find mentions that "[t]he sergeant went on to explain that 'snafu' was a term the 35th division outfits that went on maneuvers over in Tennessee last month [June] imported to Camp Robinson." It's difficult to know whether the Tennessee usage referred specifically to hats or whether this reflected a general usage of "snafu" with its implication that things were "fucked up."

Shapiro's sergeant says the name first applied to khaki hats, and suggests the name came first and then "somebody decided it was a bunch of letters that stood for words". These hats references are interesting, and deserve more attention -- did why exactly was snafu used for hats in the first place?

There's also Tennessee again, where Private "W" wrote from in September 1941 (OED).

Barry Popik found this in the San Francisco Chronicle, 15 June 1941, pg. 5, col. 4:

Slanguage
Army Camps
Developing a
Dictionary
(...)
"Snafu" means "situation normal, all fuddled up."
(...)
"Red Lead" is tomatoes, tomato sauce or ketchup.
Cream and sugar or salt and pepper are "sidearms." Salt, alone, is "sea-dust."
(...)
Spinach is "seaweed."

Bonnie Taylor-Blake adds:

From Howard Needham's "Slanguage: Army Camps Developing a Dictionary," The San Francisco Chronicle, 15 June 1941, p. 5. Needham, a staff writer for the Chronicle, filed his report from Hunter Liggett Reservation, southern Monterey County, California the previous day. He attributed a crop of expressions new to Hunter Liggett to some 35,000 troops who had arrived from Fort Lewis, Washington.

Acronyms in general

Back to the Wireless World story. The story tells of two telephone engineers who used SNAFU, TARFU and FUBAR as code words in their pre-war jobs at Western Electric (founded 1872, defunct 1995).

It's possible, but seems unlikely partly because there's no written evidence that these were used before World War II.

• The earliest written evidence shows that SNAFU was in use with the US military in the USA in 1941.
• Likewise, the Oxford English Dictionary says it's originally US military slang with a first quotation from 1941.
• TARFU also appears contemporaneous US military slang, appearing in Time Magazine in November 1942. One account in Green Light!: A Troop Carrier Squadron's War From Normandy to the Rhine explained the difference to SNAFU:

"TARFU" was our embellishment on "snafu." Snafu, already in use all over the US and not only in the military, meant "Situation normal, all fucked up." You were supposed to say this with a resigned shrug of the shoulders, indicating that the submoronic people and junky devices you had to deal with would naturally fail. We in troop carrier, responsible as we were for immensely delicate and complex machinery and saddled with impossibly ambitious flying assignments, had to go beyond snafu; so we used "Things Are Really Fucked Up!"

• And finally, apart from a few exceptions such as POTUS, "acronyms didn't become a common method of word formation in English until World War II", according to the Online Etymology Dictionary.

The phrase phoney baloney seems to have its popular origin in the term the phonus bolonus, which Damon Runyon uses three times in his very popular 1932 book Guys and Dolls. From Damon Runyon, Guys and Dolls (1932) [combined snippets]:

Of course this message is nothing but the phonus bolonus, but Waldo drops in for it and gets in the car. Then Wop Joe drives him up to Miss Missouri Martin’s apartment, and who gets in the car there but Dave the Dude. And away they go.

…

This Rodney B. Emerson is quite a guy along Broadway, and a great hand for spending dough and looking for laughs, and he is very popular with the mob. Furthermore, he is obligated to Dave the Dude, because Dave sells him good champagne when most guys are trying to hand him the old phonus bolonus, and naturally Rodney B. Emerson appreciates this kind treatment.

…

So he hops right over from Newport, and joins in with Dave the Dude, and I wish to say Rodney B. Emerson will always be kindly remembered by one and all for his co-operation, and nobody will ever again try to hand him the phonus bolonus when he is not buying it off of Dave the Dude.

Runyon's word choice (and diction) prompted this response in a contemporaneous review of Guys and Dolls. From “Broadway in Two Tenses," in The New Republic (“1931”) [combined snippets]:

I am not trying to say why it is, but it seems sure that unless Mr. Damon Runyon is giving one and all the phonus bolonus, the citizens along Broadway have a very quaint way of talking indeed. I do not think it is so much that their pick of words is different from that of the rest of us, for if you will ask me I will say that there is no line of Mr. Damon Runyon’s book which will give a moment’s pain to anyone, even if he never makes it a point to keep watch of the wellsprings of the American language. In fact I will go so far as to say that personally I will talk more slanguage in ten minutes as a usual thing than you will be able to find in Mr. Damon Runyon's book.

Harold Wentworth & Stuart Flexner, Dictionary of American Slang (1960) reports the following early slang meanings of boloney:

boloney baloney bologny n. 1 An inferior prize fighter . 1921: "...To bounce some boloney at this fight club." Witwer, Leather, 28. Never common. See sausage. 2 An An uninformed, stupid, or needless person. 1937: "...You dumb baloney." Wordman, Wholesale, 9. Fairly common until c1940; archaic. 3 Nonsense; false information or talk, even if believed by the speaker; worthless or pretentious talk; tripe, bunk, hokum, hot air, blah. 1929: "...One of the young men ... dismissed the whole speech as 'a bunch of tripe.' The other .... concluded, 'Oh, of course there was a certain amount of bologny in what he said....'" Philip Curtiss, Harper's, Aug., 385/1. ...

Wentworth & Flexner also traces the slang term phoney in the sense of "Not genuine; fake or faked; counterfeit; insincere" to 1902. And finally Stuart & Flexner offers this definition of the phonus bolonus, which it links to Runyan:

phonus bolonus (the) n. Something or someone phoney or of a quality below that represented; anything cheap, gaudy, or of inferior quality; insincere speech, exaggeration, a line; wrong or misleading advice, a bum steer.

To all appearances, phoney baloney is simply an adjectival rendering of "the phonus balonus," with most of its essential meanings retained intact. In short, the words phoney and baloney inspired the phonus bolonus, which in turn begat phoney baloney (in its various spellings).

UPDATE (10/29/14): FURTHER RESEARCH

I did some additional research into the spellings "phony boloney," "phoney boloney," "phony boloneys," phoney boloneys," etc., and found several instances that appear at approximately the same date as Runyan's Guys and Dolls—certainly close enough to raise the question of whether he simply faux-Latinized a slang term that was already current, as bib suggests in a comment below.

The oldest possibility is tantalizingly early—it's a song title that appears in a snippet view taken from Library of Congress, Catalog of Copyright Entries: Musical Compositions, Part 3, supposedly from 1930—but also extremely bare-bones:

That phoney boloney. 2162.

However, Frank Hoffman, Dick Carty & Quentin Riggs, Billy Murray: The Phonograph Industries First Great Recording Artist (1997) show a song of that name (albeit with Baloney instead of Boloney) appearing on three 78-rpm recordings issued by three different labels during 1929 [snippet view]:

That Phoney Baloney. (Samberg, Pestalozza) Solo. Banner 6280. Side B. 1929.

That Phoney Boloney. (Samberg, Pestalozza) Solo. Domino 4285. 8469- 2. Side A. 1929.

That Phoney Baloney. (Samberg, Pestalozza) Solo. Oriole 1469. 1929.

Another interesting early reference to the term occurs in Cornelius Willemse, A Cop Remembers (1933), which devotes an entire chapter to the topic of “Phony Boloneys” and includes this comment:

It was just another "phony boloney," designed to cheat the insurance company and it wasn't very well done at that. It was years afterwards that I dug up some more information on this case.

The fact that Willemse's book is a memoir suggests that "phony boloney" may have existed as slang for a particular category of scamming crimes—at least in New York City, where Willemse worked as a policeman and detective for 26 years, between 1900 and 1925, according to the Wikipedia article about him—for some years prior to 1933.

Perhaps the most interesting feature of these early instances of phoney [or phony] boloney is that the term appears as a noun in each instance—just as in the case of Runyon's the phonus bolonus. At this point I'm inclined to think that Runyon simply borrowed and gussied up an existing New York City slang term for his book.