My theory is that "the new normal" in use after 9/11 is a figurative extension of a therapeutic term referring to how grieving survivors handle the loss of a loved one. From an article in Psychology Today in 2010:
The phrase "the New Normal" is a term from the ‘grief and recovery' world that I've surprised myself by taking to heart. I don't take easily to slogans. If you come at me with something along the lines of "it's all good," I promise you I will snarl. (It's not all good. Some things are less than good. Other things are just okay. Iceberg lettuce, for example, or that brown blouse I thought I liked.) I do, however, feel right at home with diagnostic language, along with family oddities like, "If my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a streetcar." Hence, my fondness for the phrase, "New Normal."
Note that the publisher of the earliest book title cited in the question, The New Normal: How FDNY Firefighters are Rising to the Challenge of Life After September 11, is Counseling Service Unit of the FDNY, 2002.
The FDNY Foundation website describes the "Counseling Service Unit" in an article:
“The mental health of our members is of the utmost importance,” said Captain Frank Leto, the Deputy Director of the FDNY Counseling Services Unit. “Being in this department for 32 years, I know firefighters and EMTs respond to the most dangerous situations, but if they’re having a problem in their family or emotionally, that’s what can stop them in their tracks. We have to make sure that everyone is operating at their optimum level.”
In other words, this early publication with "The New Normal" in the title was published by a unit dedicated to mental health, that would have been familiar with the therapeutic term described in the Psychology Today article above, and the senses in which it was used prior to 9/11 as outlined below.
Many of the uses I found prior to 9/11 fit directly into this sense, and it doesn't seem far-fetched that the sense would lend itself to figurative extension as in "the nation is grieving," hence the explosion in use post-9/11.
Here are a few uses that appeared shortly before 2001.
She said it is her aim to turn those "co-victims" into people who can live in their "new 'normal.' You know you can't go back," to life before the murder, she said. "But that doesn't mean you can't be OK. There will be a new normal. There will be a new life."
Moving backward, there is this use from 1999 that describes its own context:
Those whose loved ones have died will never get back to what Klug calls "the old normal," that is, the way things used to be. "It's a process of moving to 'the new normal,'" he says. The new normal means new habits, new routines.
Another example is from 1996 in the U.K.
The counselors talk about something called a "new normal". The aim for survivors and relatives, they say, should not be to avoid the experience of last April but to minimise the extent to which it disrupts their lives.
Because of the frequency of pre-9/11 uses relating specifically to grieving for lost loved ones, with only occasional one-off uses that are unrelated to grief, my hypothesis is that this term from the Psychology community was adopted to describe the mass-grief of a country following a shocking loss.
This is a history that perhaps should remain unwritten. If you're easily offended, you probably don't want to read it. And so I'll keep it brief. Bush may not appreciate the original source of the popularity of the phrase...which could not help but resonate for the many members of the British and US sub- and counter-cultures listening to him. And laughing.
The exact phrase "read my lips" first appears, in the documentation available to me, in the late 19th century. At that time, it was associated with teaching deaf children. So, this from an 1893 volume titled Summer Meetings: American Association to Promote Teaching of the Deaf is the first instance I could glean from Google Books:
He gave me three girls to teach for a week; one of them was born deaf and dumb. I taught them to say some sentences and to read my lips in learning them.
Isolated appearances with reference to teaching the deaf continue through the first six decades of the twentieth century, and beyond, in books, journals and newspapers.
Then comes the boom in popularity, partially sponsored by a counter-culture film called The Rocky Horror Picture Show, starring Tim Curry et al. A Wikipedia article calls it "the longest-running release in film history". Let's just say it was popular. Very popular among select groups. Lips, in a variety of guises, feature large in the film. For example, a description of the film intro from a transcription:
{ chant "Lips...lips...lips..." and cheer when they appear }
{ "A long long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away,
God said: 'Let there be lips,' (let's fuck) and there were.
And they were good. and the lips said 'thank you'. Sing!"
or "And on the eighth day God made lips.
And there were lips, and they were good lips,
and they gave good head"
....
(From the script archives at Zenin's Rocky Horror Picture Show Archive!!!.)
When, in 1978, the star of The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Tim Curry, released his first solo album (an 'album' was at that time the medium for recorded music), he titled the album Read My Lips. The title traded heavily on the subtext arising from the artist's having been the star of the film. Its success among the sub- and counter-culture groups that made up the fan base of The Rocky Horror Picture Show was guaranteed. It remains a significant release for many fans, as an article at Why It Matters from September, 2013, testifies:
... Curry recorded some kickass albums for A&M Records.
Read My Lips was the first of the three, released in 1978 when Rocky Horror mania was at its peak. I was one of those Rocky Horror fans, which is why I’m writing this while wearing a corset and garter.
Be all that as it may, which it might or might not, because although William Saffire in a September, 1988 Washington Post article titled "ON LANGUAGE; Read My Lips", seems to contradict it by quoting Tim Curry, he also confirms the origin is "rooted in rock music":
Read my lips is rooted in rock music. In 1978, the actor-singer Tim Curry gave that name to an album of songs written by others (though it did not include a song with that title copyrighted in 1957 by Joe Greene).
Reached in Washington, where he is appearing in ''Me and My Girl,'' Mr. Curry recalled that he got the phrase from an Italian-American recording engineer: ''I would say to him, 'We got it that time,' and he would say, 'Read my lips - we didn't.' That phrase arrested me, and I thought it would make an arresting album title. Be a good name for Mick Jagger's autobiography, come to think of it.''
Saffire goes on to complete his clandestine apologetics--a transparent, but apparently successful effort at damage control--for Bush's use by tracing perhaps more direct and less compromising influences. Notice that Saffire chooses to characterize Bush's use as a "stern intensifier", rather than sarcastic:
- songwriters, including the pair that wrote the song recorded by Melba Moore;
- "sports figures snapped up the stern intensifier. The phrase appeared as a nickname suggesting emphasis in orders by a football coach -Mike (Read My Lips) Ditka" (op. cit.);
- the name of a race horse;
- a use by a heavyweight boxer in announcing how he would announce his retirement;
- a use by a White House aide insisting the hostages released by Iran be brought home in planes marked "United States of America";
- a 1987 use by Senator Albert Gore while questioning the Under Secretary of Defense about missile funding, during which Gore managed a surprising twist by putting the words into the mouth of the Under Secretary: '"You're saying, 'Read my lips, cut the money'." for the Midgetman, said Senator Gore. "Your message is clear."' (op. cit.).
Best Answer
Early stages of 'the next big thing'
The earliest instance of the character string "the next big thing" that a Google Books search turns up frames the character string as "the next 'big thing'"—that is, it treats "big thing" as the set phrase and uses next as a simple modifier. From a news item in the Richmond [Virginia] Dispatch (March 9, 1869):
Here, the expression seems to mean nothing more than "the second-most important holding." The meaning of the phrase at this stage bears little relation to the modern idiomatic sense described in user159691's question.
Somewhat closer to the modern meaning is an advertisement for W.W. Pierce & Co. in the Erie [Pennsylvania] Observer (1869) for several farm implements—a plow, a grain drill, and a seed sower. According to the advertisement, after observing that the Mohawk Valley Clipper Plow "hardly needs a recommendation":
which initially sounds like a thoroughly modern use of "the next big thing," until the ad turns to its next implement:
Evidently, although "big thing" has a very modern sense of "big deal" or "popular favorite" in this advertisement, the wording "the next 'big thing'" as used here just means "the next popular favorite in our lineup."
By 1870, "the next big thing" has taken another step forward and begins appearing in the sense of "the next major planned event." From "Seegers' Ice," in the Newberry [South Carolina] Herald (September 7, 1870):
As noted in a recent answer to an old question about the origin of "on tap," the idiom "on the tapis" means "on the table," "under consideration," or (by extension) "in the offing."
And from an untitled item in the Terre Haute [Indiana] Evening Gazette (December 28, 1875):
These instances, where "the next big thing" is roughly equivalent to "the next big event," appear in multiple places in the late 1870s: in Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania (December 7, 1876) in connection with a political intrigue; in Cairo, Illinois (May 5, 1877), a "baby exposition"; in Newberry, South Carolina again (March 20, 1878), Easter; in Brenham, Texas (July 19, 1878), a "Pomological exhibition"; Hillsborough, Ohio (June 19, 1879), a school commencement exercise; and Memphis, Tennessee (September 2, 1880), a railroad and steamboat excursion. They take us a considerable distance toward the modern meaning, "the newest fad or breakthrough or popular success," and they continue unabated over the next several decades.
Yet another instance that suggests movement in that direction appears in a letter by W.P. Howle, M.D., to the editor of Journal of the American Medical Association (April 28, 1894):
Here the writer seems to be using "big thing" in the somewhat sarcastic way that a person might use "big hoopla" or "big to-do," with the implication that "the next big thing" is to some extent a product of popular gullibility and the public's insatiable desire for novelty.
The earliest thoroughly modern 'next big thing'
The earliest occurrence I've found of the expression "the next big thing" in what looks to me to be its thoroughly modern sense of "the new rage in a particular field" is from 1910, in the title of a cartoon by Rube Goldberg from The San Francisco [California] Call (November 22, 1910):
The cartoon depicts champion boxer Jack Johnson sailing through the sky in boxing gear strapped to an airplane-like conveyance. Evidently the cartoon was inspired by a comment from the prizefighter: "Jack Johnson predicts that the aeroplane will be used in the fighting game." A second very early instance of "the next big thing" in the relevant sense is from another Rube Goldberg cartoon—this one from the San Francisco [California] Call (September 20, 1912):
The cartoon anticipates automated shoe stores, hat stores, restaurants, barber shops, and hospitals.
Google Books and Elephind searches turned up several other instances from 1912 and very early 1913. From "What Credit Means to the Farmer," an article on cooperative rural credit associations, in the Abilene [Texas] Reporter (January 10, 1912):
From Mysterious Mr. Sabin, serialized in the Molong [New South Wakes] Express (October 19, 1912):
From The International Socialist Review (December 1912), in an article by Samuel Ball called "The Next Big Thing":
From an untitled item in the Rock Island [Illinois] Argus (January 22, 1913):
Other instances in which "the next big thing" describes a wave of popular enthusiasm for a real or imagined innovation or money-making scheme, rather than excitement about a discrete scheduled event involve buying property along anticipated main transportation lines near Los Angeles (March 15, 1913), tree crops (November 29, 1913), chemotherapy (December 1914), an expanding copper company (February 16, 1917), funding research to improve U.S. aircraft (July 20, 1919), the Catherine mine (August 9, 1919), automobiles made of cotton (February 3, 1922), wireless radio receivers (April 24, 1922), and anonymous authorship (1925).
'The next big thing' in 1970s popular music and beyond
My own memory of the rise of "the next big thing" was in connection with the music industry, where in the early 1970s record companies and the music press were on alert for "the next Dylan," "the next Beatles," etc., and ultimately settled on the more generically appealing "the Next Big Thing"—sometimes rendered in initial caps—for a band, a singer, or an emerging musical genre. That is the seems to be the gist of Sam Sutherland, "Next Big Thing Fever," in High Fidelity magazine, volume 29 (1979) [combined snippets]:
And from a review of David Bowie's Let's Dance, in Stereo Review (1983) [combined snippets]:
But whether the music industry's use of "the next big thing" invigorated a usage that had been in continuous since the early 1910s or merely coincided with an older, forgotten tradition, "the next big thing" was a popular expression in the 1910s and 1920s, with essentially the same meaning that it has now. And if any one person deserves credit for popularizing the expression in the 1910s, that person is the great U.S. cartoonist Rube Goldberg, who accounts for two of the earliest definite modern-style instances of "the next big thing" that I found in my Elephind newspaper database and Google Books database searches—dating to 1910 and 1912.