On my Monk, I'm trying to figure out if I would rather do a Dodge build with Dodge-centered Passives and Mantras, or if I should go for more armor and healing. In my mind, it comes down to just how random Dodge is.
If I have a 50% dodge rate, which of these is true?
- Every time I am attacked, I have a 50% chance to Dodge the attack.
- Incoming attacks will be Dodged at a consistently 50% rate. Past results affect future results – eg, I have not Dodged in a while, I will be more likely to Dodge.
Essentially I am asking if the Gambler's Fallacy is true for Dodge chance.
Both case #1 and case #2 would average out to the same thing in a long fight, but in a short burst case #2 is preferable.
In case #1, a string of bad randomness will mean I could take several hits in a row without Dodging any of them (Dodge, Dodge, Dodge, Hit, Hit, Hit, Hit, Hit, Hit owww my spleen). If that happens, my Dodge wasn't really much use to me, as a bunch of unfortunate die rolling got me killed.
In case #2, having 50% Dodge chance is nearly equivalent to 50% damage mitigation, as attacks would essentially alternate (Dodge, Hit, Dodge, Hit, Dodge, Hit, Dodge, Hit). I can expect that I will consistently avoid incoming attacks, and don't have to curse Math.Rand() for getting me killed.
So, which is it? Can I expect consistent results from my Dodging, or is it all chance?
Best Answer
Since one of the Monk's achievements (Like Water) is to dodge 15 attacks in a row, I would say #1 is accurate: each time you are attacked you have a 50% change to dodge
This can further be backed up by many dodge-specced monks who can testify to dying many times due to a string of bad luck :)