Does the "Take Watch" move roll determine whether something bad happens? RAW it seems like it is up to the GM.
In other games, the DM decides ahead of time (usually) whether or not the players will be attacked while sleeping. However, this approach seems against the grain of Dungeon World, as "things happen" when the players do something, or the GM makes a soft/hard move. So, how are you supposed to determine whether something bothers the players as they settle in for the night?